Forecasting buffalo milk production in India: Time series approach
Keywords:
Bubalus bubalis, buffaloes, ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model, neural networkAbstract
Globally, India stands first both in production as well as consumption of milk. Nearly 50% of the Indian milk production comes from buffalo followed by cow and goat. India is home to buffalo with approximately 56% of world buffalo population. Given the importance of buffalo milk, an attempt was made to model and forecast the annual buffalo milk production using various time series analysis techniques. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and ARIMA-ANN hybrid model were used to model the time series data of 58 years collected from secondary sources. Among the three models, the ARIMA-ANN hybrid model was found to be the best for the data under consideration based on forecast accuracy measures. This is because of the ability of ARIMA-ANN hybrid model to capture both linear and nonlinear structures in the data. By using the ARIMA-ANN hybrid model, the annual buffalo milk production was forecasted and it was found to exceed 1,000 million tonnes in the coming years.
Downloads
Metrics
References
Box, G.E.P., G.M. Jenkins and G.C. Reinsel. 1994. Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, 3rd ed. Prentice Hall, Englewood Clifs, New Jersey, USA.
DAHD. 2019. Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying Annual Report. Available on: https://dahd.nic.in/sites/default/filess/Annual%20Report.pdf
Kumar, A., P.K. Joshi, P. Kumar and S. Parappurathu. 2014. Trends in the consumption of milk and milk products in India: implications for self-sufficiency in milk production. Food Secur., 6(5): 719-726. DOI: 10.1007/s12571-014-0376-y
Kumar, R. and R. Singh. 2010. Buffalo production system in India. Revista Veterinaria, 21(Sppl. 1): 1-13.
Minhas, K.S., J.S. Sidhu, G.S. Mudahar and A.K. Singh. 2002. Flow behavior characteristics of ice cream mix made with buffalo milk and various stabilizers. Plant Food. Hum. Nutr., 57(1): 25-40. DOI: 10.1023/a:1013106116587
Mishra, P., C. Fatih, H.K. Niranjan, S. Tiwari, M. Devi and A. Dubey. 2019. Modelling and forecasting of milk production in Chhattisgarh and India. Indian J. Anim. Res., 54: 912-917. DOI: 10.18805/ijar.B-3918
Paul, R.K., W. Alam and A.K. Paul. 2014. Prospects of livestock and dairy production in India under time series framework. Indian J. Anim. Sci., 84(4): 462-466.
Ravichandran, S., B.S. Yashavanth and K. Kareemulla. 2018. Oilseeds production and yield forecasting using ARIMA-ANN modelling. Journal of Oilseeds Research, 35(1): 57-62.
Ray, M., A. Rai, V. Ramasubramanian and K.N. Singh. 2016. ARIMA-WNN hybrid model for forecasting wheat yield time-series data. Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, 70(1): 63-70. Available on: http://isas.org.in/jsp/volume/vol70/issue1/8%20-%20Mrinmoy.pdf
Saude, L.M.S., G.T. Gabriel and P.P. Balestrassi. 2020. Forecasting of buffalo milk in a Brazilian diary using the ARIMA model. Buffalo Bull., 39(2): 201-213. Available on: https://kuojs.lib.ku.ac.th/index.php/BufBu/article/view/550
Taye, B.A., A.A. Alene, A.K. Nega and B.G. Yirsaw. 2020. Time series analysis of cow milk production at Andassa dairy farm, West Gojam zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 7: 181-189. DOI: 10.1007/s40808-020-00946-z
Zicarelli, L. 2004. Buffalo milk: Its properties, dairy yield and mozzarella production. Vet. Res. Commun., 28(Sppl. 1): 127-135. DOI: 10.1023/B:VERC.0000045390.81982.4d
Zhang, G. 2003. Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model. Neurocomputing, 50: 159-175. DOI: 10.1016/S0925-2312(01)00702-0
.png){kind=logo}
